En un informe llamado “A report card for unconventional monetary policy”, Deutsche Bank ha analizado el impacto en la economía de las políticas “no convencionales” monetarias de expansión cuantitativa y tipos de interés negativos.
Han analizado el impacto en los indices manufactureros desde el principio hasta el final de esas medidas, y han encontrado los siguientes resultados:
1. En ocho de los 12 casos analizados, el impacto en la economía fue negativo
2. En tres casos, fue completamente neutral
3. Solo funcionó en el caso del llamado QE1 de EEUU, y fundamentalmente porque la base de partida era muy baja y además EEUU pasó a ser un gran productor de petróleo.
Como explica Torsten Slock, el analista de Deutsche Bank, el hecho de que en ocho de doce casos el impacto haya sido negativo habla por sí mismo.
“How do you evaluate if QE and negative interest rates are working? When I discuss this with clients, I sometimes get the response that QE and negative interest rates are working well because the payment systems are running and the financial system still functions. But the issue is not if computers can deal with negative interest rates. The issue is if QE and negative rates have been supporting the economy.
The chart below looks at QE and negative rates across countries and the impact it has had on ISM and PMI across countries, from start to end of each unconventional policy. The conclusion is that US QE1 had an impact but in all other cases the impact of QE and negative interest rates has been insignificant. And in 8 out of 12 cases, the economic impact has been negative.
Once again, there is too big of a burden on monetary policy and it is time for fiscal and structural policy to step up and begin to support GDP growth.”
The chart below looks at QE and negative rates across countries and the impact it has had on ISM and PMI across countries, from start to end of each unconventional policy. The conclusion is that US QE1 had an impact but in all other cases the impact of QE and negative interest rates has been insignificant. And in 8 out of 12 cases, the economic impact has been negative.
Once again, there is too big of a burden on monetary policy and it is time for fiscal and structural policy to step up and begin to support GDP growth.”
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